Scenarios for 2050

Based on different choice paths, France could follow several trajectories:

Scenario 1: Green Leadership

France leverages environmental transition for prosperity: - Nuclear and renewable energy exporting globally - Circular economy creating new industries - Sustainable agriculture feeding Europe - Eco-tourism thriving - Quality of life attracting global talent

Requirements: - Massive green investment sustained - Social consensus on transition - Technology breakthroughs achieved - European coordination effective - Skills transformation managed

Outcomes: - Employment in green sectors booming - Export leadership in environmental solutions - Regional inequalities reduced - Health improvements from cleaner environment - International influence through climate leadership

Scenario 2: Digital Powerhouse

France becomes European tech champion: - AI and quantum computing excellence - Startup unicorns proliferating - Digital services exporting globally - Platform economy regulated successfully - Cybersecurity leadership established

Requirements: - Risk capital availability - Regulatory balance achieved - Education system transformed - Brain drain reversed - Infrastructure world-class

Outcomes: - High-skill job creation - Productivity acceleration - New global champions emerging - Regional hubs thriving - Inequality potentially increasing

Scenario 3: Fortress France

Economic nationalism dominates: - Strategic autonomy prioritized - Immigration restricted severely - Protectionist measures expanded - Social model preserved rigidly - International engagement limited

Requirements: - Political consensus on closure - Economic costs accepted - European fragmentation - Technological self-sufficiency - Social cohesion maintained

Outcomes: - Economic growth slowing - Innovation declining - Living standards stagnating - Social stability possibly higher - International marginalization

Scenario 4: Muddling Through

Incremental changes without transformation: - Reforms partial and contested - Technological adoption lagging - Environmental targets missed - Regional disparities persisting - Global competitiveness eroding

Requirements: - Political paralysis continuing - Social resistance strong - Investment insufficient - Coordination failures - Crisis management reactive

Outcomes: - Relative decline accelerating - Youth exodus increasing - Public services deteriorating - Social tensions mounting - Opportunities missed